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LaborAtlas

Customized scenarios  ·  Workshop

Build your own labor-market scenario

The Atlas page lets you scrub through the pre-computed scenario cube (3 AI scenarios × 6 wage ceilings, immigration held at its baseline path). This workshop lets you go off-grid: continuous AI intensity, immigration anywhere from zero to triple the baseline inflow, per-supercategory demand shifts, and a free-form wage-growth cap. When you press Compute, the underlying GE solver re-solves with your inputs and returns updated metro and occupation numbers.

How this computes. The GE model was solved offline across a grid of demand-growth, AI-intensity, immigration, and wage-cap values; Compute interpolates that grid in your browser (no live solver). Numbers are on the same basis as the Atlas headline (271-MSA + non-MSA residual, ~all US employment). The six supercategory sliders are a first-order linear estimate; the demand-growth slider sets demand at base wages, not realized employment.
Aggregate demand growth (at base wages)

Total 10-year employment-demand growth at current wages, 2024 → 2034. The model's central (Projections Central) aggregate is the calibrated default; realized employment after the wage solve differs. The page opens on the calibrated point.

+7.3%
AI intensity

0 = no AI shock (baseline). 1 = Greg's "gradual" scenario. 2 = "transformative". Higher values extrapolate beyond the calibrated points (handle with care).

0.00
Immigration inflows (% of baseline)

100% = historical 2010–2024 ACS inflows continue. 0% = no new immigration. Negative inflows are not modeled.

100%
Wage-growth cap (10-yr)

Cap on cumulative EXTRA wage growth above the baseline trend over the decade. The model has no price index, so this is a constraint on extra % growth, not "real" growth.

5.0%
Per-supercategory demand shifts (advanced)

Tilt aggregate demand toward or away from individual supercategories. Each slider adds/subtracts percentage points on top of the aggregate growth above.

Where the gap lands

Projected labor shortage at your scenario, by metro and by state. The map updates on Compute; toggle Metros/States above it. (Per-supercategory tilts shift the national totals above but are not re-mapped spatially.)

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